January 2018 – New Year, New Market - The New Street Resale Real Estate Report for The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Region
With 2018 and the emergence of the new mortgage changes comes a predictable overall drop since last month, keeping with the trend set by the last few months of 2017. The good news is, average prices remain relatively stable from last month, up by 0.2% to $736,783 in the Greater Toronto area and down 0.7% to $517,751 in the Hamilton area. From last year, we’re seeing a 4.1% decrease in Toronto and 0.7% increase in Hamilton. It’s important to remember however that this time last year was the very peak of the 2017 red-hot housing market, and we’ll likely see a slight decrease in price when comparing year to year for a few months.
GTA & Hamilton Home Prices - TREB & RABH MLS Systems - Last 12 Months
Sales volume keeps with this trend, with sales down from last month by 18.5% and from last year by 22.0% in Toronto, and down 12.1% from last month and 27.1% from last year in Hamilton. This isn’t surprising; a notable trend we’ve seen in the last few months that continues is a decrease in absorption rates resulting in more time needed to sell a home. New mortgage rules and a general slowing down means more buyers have time to consult their finances, take a second look and think about their purchase before pulling the trigger. As a result, average days on the market increased 18.5% since last month and a whopping 68.4% from the previous year for the Toronto area. As mentioned earlier, this time last year was when the market was at its absolute peak, so we’ll be seeing almost unbelievable numbers such as these in some areas as we continue to compare this year to the red-hot market of the previous year. We saw a significant number of new listings in January, up from both last month, by 35.6% and from last year by 17.4% on the Toronto Real Estate Board. In the Hamilton-Burlington area, new listings are up 89.5% from last month (wow!) and 6.8% from this time last year.
GTA & Hamilton Homes Sales Stats – January 2018
When we evaluate by home type in the Toronto Real Estate board, we see some different trends beginning to emerge:
- Detached homes saw an average price decline of 12% in the 905 and 4% in Toronto, with decreased number of sales for both areas as well.
- Condo sales remain strong, with an overall price increase from last year of 14.6%, continuing the trend from last month of being the home type that saw the highest amount of growth in price.
- Semi-detached and townhomes remain stable, up slightly in price in the 905 area and up almost 10% in Toronto from last month.
GTA Sales & Average Price by Home Type - January 2018
The Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington MLS System reported a total of 495 freehold and 132 condominium sales in January. This represents a decrease in freehold sales of 15.5% from the previous month and 27.9% from January last year. Freehold prices however remain stable. Condominiums are experiencing similar success in the Hamilton and Burlington area as the 905 and 416 areas, with an increase in average price to 0.7% from last month to $398,517, up 6.9% from the previous year and an increase of 3.9% in number of sales.
Hamilton & Burlington Sales & Average Price by Home Type - January 2018
As we look to the map below, we can begin to examine how the market is performing on a more local level in the Hamilton-Burlington area:
- Burlington sales are down 24% from last year, likewise prices are down 7% from last year, however saw an increase of 4% from last month.
- The Stoney Creek market remained stable with prices remaining the same from last year. With 48 total sales, they are down in price by 24% from last January.
- Sales in Grimsby were up by almost 10% from last year with the price remaining within a percentage point from previous year.
- The average price in Dundas was down almost 10%; the county saw only 12 sales this month.
- With 24 sales, volume was down almost 50% in Ancaster with the average price down by 8%.
- Caledonia had only 14 sales but saw the highest price jump with the average price up 16% from last year.
- Core Hamilton areas came out on top this month, with average prices increasing from last year between 10-13% for Hamilton West, Centre, East and Mountain.
As mentioned previously, a big take away for the Hamilton/Burlington area is the increase in condo prices of 7%, with corresponding number of sales down 24%. Freehold sales in this area may be down by a whopping 30%, but prices are remaining consistently stable.
Hamilton & Burlington Prices & Sales by Community (RAHB's MLS System) - January 2018
Looking into more detail at the GTA region, an interesting trend is an almost unanimous increase in condo prices across the board, a similar trend to what we’re seeing the Hamilton/Burlington area. The exceptions being Vaughan, which had no price increase and Halton Hills which saw no condo sales this month. Other notable insights include: Toronto
- Toronto West, Central and East saw an increase in average price ranging from 2.0%-8.8% from last year.
- Toronto West saw the lowest decrease in sales volumes (9%) and highest average price increase (9%)
- Toronto East saw the highest decrease in sales volumes (27%) and lowest average price increase (2%)
- Condo prices in across Toronto are performing relatively well, up 10% in price in west, 16% up in Central and a whopping 25% up in East.
- Overall sales volume is down, particularly in Toronto Central and East, where decreases are in the double-digital percent. The one exception is Toronto Central towns, up a remarkable 36.5% from last year, representing 15 sales.
- Detached homes in Toronto vary, although sales volume is down across the board, the number of sales remain in the triple digits. Toronto west saw an increase in price of 8.9% averaging about 1M. Toronto Central average detached prices are down 11.8% to 1M and Toronto East is down 4.1% to $887,425.
- Mississauga’s experiences a decrease in volume of sales of 16.5% from last month, down almost 20% from January 2017. This decrease of sales was felt in every housing category from Detached to condos.
- Mississauga average price decreased for detached, semis and towns by 13.5%, 6.4% and 10.7% and overall from January 2017 by 9.9%
- Mississauga’s condo market however remains strong. Condo-towns saw a 5.5% average price increase and condos saw a 16.8% average price increase from last year.
- Oakville saw 153 sales this month, down 13.6%, while also experiencing an average price decrease of 4.3%.
- Oakville detached price up about 4% to 1.36M, putting them at the most expensive detached average price in the GTA. This is particularly noteworthy as almost every other area saw a decrease in detached prices.
- There were only 19 Oakville condo-town sales, but this represented a startling 46% increase in sales numbers and a 17% increase in average price, at $578,173.
- Milton saw a general decline this month, with sales down 20% and prices down 7%. Detached homes particularly felt the drop, with sales down 37% and prices down 9%.
- Milton was one of the few cities that saw an increase in Semi-detached sales and prices, up 30.8% at 17 sales, and increasing marginally in price by 0.6%.
- Average price saw a significant drop in Markham, down 37.1% from last year and Richmond Hill, down 45.5% from last year.
- Vaughan, Aurora and Newmarket also experiences somewhat significant average price decreases from last year at 28.9%, 9.4% and 44.0%.
- Brampton is continuing its upward streak from December, with an increase in average price of 3.4% from last month, remaining on par with this time last year. All home types experienced an increase in average price of over 1%, and condos saw an impressive increase of 15.5% from this time last year
- Brampton’s sales numbers had generally decreased this month, down nearly 20% from last month and the year previous. Only condo-towns saw an increase in sales numbers, and significantly so at 38 sales, up 35.7% from last year.
GTA Prices & Sales by Area (TREB's MLS System) - January 2018
As we begin 2018, the market has behaved somewhat predictably given the factors we knew were coming into play at the beginning of the year to slow down the housing market. Firstly, the new mortgage qualifying rules, which make buyers undergo a more strenuous “stress-test” has taken some buyers out of the running altogether, while others have had to rethink what type of homes are open to them. The rental increase cap may be temporarily deterring new investors and finally, the market seems to be simply maintain the trend of slower selling times, especially for single-detached and a corresponding increase in interest in the condo market, which is manifesting in increased average selling prices and numbers. We look forward to continuing our deep dive into the ever-changing landscape of Ontario’s housing market as 2018 progresses. Let us know your thoughts on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.
Note: Many of the stats in this report use home type classifications and averages to provide a general idea of recent activity in the real estate market throughout the GTA and Hamilton regions. These averages give us a high-level summary of the real estate market throughout the region and within each city compared to the previous month and year. These stats may or may not be relevant to a particular home or homes within a particular community. To better understand the home value of any particular property it is best to request a CMA from a REALTOR® and analyze sales of comparable homes within close proximity of the subject property.
Opinions are my own and should not be taken as advice. Data Compiled by New Street from TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) and RAHB (Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington). In association with Right at Home Realty Inc., Brokerage, 5111 New Street, Burlington, ON L7L 1V2. The information here is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by New Street, TREB or RAHB. Not intended to solicit listed properties or buyers under agency agreements.