May 2018 – The Last Month of Red - The New Street Resale Real Estate Report for The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Region
This month we’re beginning to see the balancing effects of a market that’s recovering from the mid-2017 slowdown, and one that can be more accurately compared year-to-year as we head into the month of 2017’s cooling period. In fact, we forecast this will be the last month where we see average prices lower than the previous year as we officially enter the time in 2017 where prices began to balance out. Coupled with a modest upswing in sales volume and corresponding prices, we can begin to get a better sense of growth year-to-year. A notable insight is that the price of a home in both TREB & RAHB are higher than they have been for the last 11 months. Still up modestly from last month and down from last year, however taking past data into account gives us a more rounded understanding of how prices are comparing overall.
GTA & Hamilton Home Prices - TREB & RABH MLS Systems - Last 12 Month
Looking at the averages in both regions some interesting insights begin to become apparent. With 7,834 sales in May in the TREB market, the market is definitely slower than normal. With a 3-year average (2015-2017) for May of 11,564, the market saw 3,730 fewer sales this May, down by 32.25%. This can be due to a number of factors, such as mortgage changes and the uncertainty it created in buyers as well as investors, which drove a large portion of sales in the GTA area. That being said, it should be noted that sales, average prices and new listings are all up from last month, across both systems.
Also, although most of the average prices listed below are down from last year, if we look beyond to 2016 and 2015, prices are up 7% (3.5% a year) in TREB’s system from 2016 and 24% (8% a year) if we compare to the average price from 3 years ago in 2015. Considering this we are overall experiencing a 24% rise in average price since 2015, an average of 8% a year. Although this number isn’t as dramatic as what we experienced in price increases from 2016-2017, it represents a healthier gradual increase that can help restore confidence in the market and overall long-term predictability.
GTA & Hamilton Homes Sales Stats – May 2018
When we evaluate the sales by home type for the Toronto Real Estate Board, we see the following insights:
- We’re seeing positive numbers from last month in average price of all housing types with the exception of townhomes, which is only down a marginal 0.7% from last month.
- Although technically down from last month, townhome sales in the 905 were one of the most sold types of housing (after detached) at 997 sales in May.
- Condominiums remain, as they have all of 2018, the housing type buyers are turning to. With overall increases from last year and last month, particularly in the 416, where number of sales is up by 10.9% and price is up 0.3% from last month and 6.5% from last year to $602,804.
GTA Sales & Average Price by Home Type - May 2018
The Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington MLS System saw largely positive numbers, particularly in freehold sales, which saw an increase of 14.3% from last month to 1,018 sales in May. Condominiums saw an increase in average price, up 2.2% from last month to $422,348 (up 0.7% from last year). We’re expecting to see a steady increase in condominiums sales and average price (both month to month and year to year) as we continue into 2018.
Hamilton & Burlington Sales & Average Price by Home Type - May 2018
As we look to the map below, we can begin to examine how the market is performing on a more local level in the Hamilton and Southwestern Ontario area:
The Hamilton area saw a modest increase in average price across the board month to month and only a small decrease in price from last year.
- The average price in Hamilton remained steady month to month, with a 6.6% decrease in price from last year
- Hamilton West and East enjoyed a significant increase in sales
- Up 25% from last month in Hamilton West to 60 sales
- Up 15.3% from last month in Hamilton East to 98 sales.
- Both areas also experienced an increase in average prices, up 2-3.6% respectably to $500,476 (West) and $385,044 (East)
- Hamilton Mountain area saw the most sales, 199 in May, an increase of 8.7% from last month and a 2.7% increase in average price to $487,940
- Flamborough experienced another 30+% increase in sales, up 38.5% to 18 sales.
- Flamborough average price of $936,961 up 20% from last year, higher than the rest of the Hamilton Region and most of GTA
- Dundas also experienced a staggering increase in sales volume from last month, 45.5% to 32 sales.
- The average price in Dundas remained relatively the same from last month, down slightly to $580,697
- Ancaster had a fairly slow month with 47% fewer sales than last year, down 14$ from last month
- The average price in Ancaster remained steady with last year, down only 1.8%
- Grimsby saw an increase in sales volume from last month, up to 38 sales
- The average price in Grimsby experienced a drop of 21% from last year to $524,612
- Stoney Creek saw a 5.7% increase in sales volume from last month to 93
- 11.2% increase in average price from last month to $571,675
Caledonia saw an increase in average price of 10.1% from last month to $487,160. This is also an 8.9% increase from last year
Dunville saw an increase in sales from last month to 13 sales and an increase in average price from last year to $441,138
Hamilton & Southwestern Ontario Prices & Sales by Community (RAHB's MLS System) - May 2018
As mentioned previous, when looking into more detail at the GTA region, we’re seeing a lot of negative numbers for May. Despite this, were confident the numbers will begin to even out as we move toward the slower season of 2017, giving us more insight into the overall position of the housing market.
- Toronto Central was the only area to see an increase in price from last month, up 1.2% to $960,558; making it the most expensive area of Toronto
- Sales were up across the board from last month; up to 831 in the West, 1,555 in Toronto Central and 706 in the East End
- Condominiums were the only type to increase in average price across the board, up to $499,894 in the west, $671,757 in Toronto Central and $442,288 in the East
- Condo Towns in Toronto West saw the highest average price increase of 10% at $595,126
- The average price of a home in Oakville ($1,007,683) fell below the average price in Vaughan ($1,014,825) in May, bumping it out of most-expensive municipality for the first time in several months
- Oakville also experienced an increase in sales of 8.5% to 308 sales in May, this sales volume came from Semis and towns
- Detached home prices saw the largest drop in their average price, down 15.4% from May of last year
- While condos in Toronto and Mississauga continue to rise even when compared annually, condos in Oakville were down from last year by 9.5%
- Mississauga experienced modest growth in the number of sales, up almost 4.8% to 829 from last month
- Average price was up slightly (0.8%) to $726,897.
- Condominiums were the only housing type to see an increase in price, up 4.9% to $434,915 from last year
- The average price of a home in Mississauga was down by only 4.4%, which is relatively low compared to other municipalities like Oakville, Burlington and those in York Region
- Milton experienced a decrease in most types
- But saw an increase in average price of 1.9% to $721,718 from last month
- Brampton experienced a decrease in the average price of most home types
- Except for condominiums, which were up 2% from last year to $366,783
- Sales activity trends in York are similar to the rest of GTA, particularly with an overall decrease in most sectors, which a few exceptions
- Vaughan saw a 1.5% increase in average price to $1,014,825
- Richmond Hill saw an increase in Semi-detached sales, up 60% to 8 sales
- Markham saw an increase in average price of 1.2% to $921,124. Condominiums were up 2.7% to $500,945. Semi-detached sales were up 19% to 25 sales
- Newmarket didn’t see growth in any sector month-to-month, however average price remains relatively high at $741,499
- Aurora saw an increase in average townhome prices of 3.8% to $746,636, as well as an increase in sales of 18.4% to 91 sales
- Sales in Burlington were up 14.4% to 262 sales from last month
- Condos saw an increase in sales of 22.6% to 38 from last year
- The average price in Burlington saw the largest increase from last month when compared to other cities in Halton and Peel, up by 7%.
- Halton Hills saw an increase in sales of 3.9% to 80 sales
- 20% increase in the sales of semis and 100% in condos (up by 1 to 2 condo sales :)
- Coincidentally average prices are up 1.2% from both last month and last year, to $770,516
GTA Prices & Sales by Area (TREB's MLS System) - May 2018
As noted previously, we're still seeing negative figures in a lot of year-to-year stats, however, as we compare as far back as 2015, we’re seeing an overall increase in average prices for both markets. We’re also predicting the disparity between year to year sales and average prices will start to dissipate as we move into the slower time-frame of 2017. As we continue to take our monthly dive into the numbers, we’ll continuously be drawing on data as far back as 2015 to give you a better understanding of average monthly sales, prices and how the real-estate market is really stacking up in 2018. It’s also worth noting the results of the recent provincial election, taking Ontario out of a 15+ year Liberal run-government will inevitably have an effect on the housing and development industry for Ontario. We’ll keep you updated as we begin to hear word of housing-related policies and their possible effect on the market.
Note: Many of the stats in this report use home type classifications and averages to provide a general idea of recent activity in the real estate market throughout the GTA and Hamilton regions. These averages give us a high-level summary of the real estate market throughout the region and within each city compared to the previous month and year. These stats may or may not be relevant to a particular home or homes within a particular community. To better understand the home value of any particular property it is best to request a CMA from a REALTOR® and analyze sales of comparable homes within close proximity of the subject property.
Opinions are my own and should not be taken as advice. Data Compiled by New Street from TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) and RAHB (Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington). In association with Right at Home Realty Inc., Brokerage, 5111 New Street, Burlington, ON L7L 1V2. The information here is deemed reliable but not guaranteed by New Street, TREB or RAHB. Not intended to solicit listed properties or buyers under agency agreements.